Re-Positioning of Almador

Due to Intel's positioning challenges between Tualatin and Northwood, we believe that Intel will withhold the DDR capabilities of the Almador chip set from the market for at least a short period of time. To understand the new initial positioning of Almador, one must place it in the context of Intel's other chip sets. This chip set volume transition roadmap (below) was recreated from original Intel marketing materials. Several interesting points can be derived from this diagram.

In this diagram, Intel admits that the 820 will be negatively impacted by both the P4 and by the 815, yet they suggest that in late Q3 and early Q4, the 820 will experience some kind of temporary surge in demand. We do not believe this will actually occur. Intel also plans a quick death for the BX. This is not a new idea. Every roadmap over he last 12 months has shown the BX being terminated in rapid fashion. The market has not always cooperated with Intel on this point.

Almador shows up in a very strange place on this roadmap. Surprisingly, it enters the product spectrum in a very narrow slot at the bottom of the P3 space, below the 815! This chart suggests a very steep ramp for Almador, which if sustained for three months, would entirely overtake the 815. Intel collateral refers to the 815 as a transition platform for Almador, suggesting that Almador will be sufficiently similar to the 815 that OEMs and board makers could base their Almador designs on pre-existing 815 platforms. We do not believe that the two will be pin compatible however.

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